Putin’s visit was meant to send a clear message to the West about his intention to offset attempts to isolate Russia. Arguably, the visit did not yield any significant agreements for Hanoi, focusing more on the economy and other aspects of cooperation than on security issues. However, the timing and associated symbolism of the visit, including Putin receiving a 21-gun salute, makes it clear that Russia remains a priority in Vietnam’s foreign policy calculations.
With Russia holding the Brics chairmanship for 2024, Putin’s visit ahead of the October summit, is a strong show of support for Hanoi’s potential membership aspirations, particularly given the expressed interest of other Southeast Asian countries in the grouping’s expansion. Putin visited soon after a Vietnamese delegation went to Russia to attend the Brics Plus dialogue.
The benefits of Hanoi formally joining Brics are quite clear. Brics membership fits perfectly with Vietnamese President To Lam’s foreign policy matrix of using multilateral diplomatic institutions to advocate for a multipolar world order and strengthen economic ties with growing economies.
Foreign ministers and high-ranking diplomatic officials pose for a photo at Government House during the Asean-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne on March 6. Photo: Reuters
In addition, Hanoi has displayed diplomatic agility in handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It has successfully managed to maintain neutrality, allowing for the nurturing of long-standing ties with both Moscow and Washington.
By highlighting Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) centrality, Vietnam has been able to navigate the intensifying geopolitical struggle and place itself at the centre of regional diplomacy. To maintain Asean centrality, it is important that the bloc remains open to engagement with all major powers, consistent with Vietnam’s current foreign policy approach, even as geopolitical rivalry heats up in the larger region.
Finally, it could be argued that, through Russia-Vietnam joint oil exploration activities, Moscow has come to tacitly support Vietnam’s sovereignty claims in the disputed South China Sea. Russian companies have operated in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, which lies within Beijing’s self-proclaimed 10-dash line. During Putin’s visit, deals were signed to further Russia-Vietnam cooperation on oil and gas exploration, while a commitment was expressed to ensure “security, safety, freedom of navigation and aviation” in and over the South China Sea.
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Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
In the near future, China’s behaviour in the South China Sea is likely to remain a top concern for Vietnam. As such, its foreign policy is likely to be based on ensuring maritime security. Although Russia is unlikely to overtly support Vietnam in case of a crisis in the South China Sea, it has cultivated a position where it can potentially play a pacifying role in Chinese-Vietnamese tensions.
The intensifying war in Ukraine has exacerbated divisions between US allies and other countries, complicating Hanoi’s efforts to uphold its “firm but flexible” foreign policy approach. However, it is also clear that a “with us or against us” stance, reminiscent of the US’ “war on terror”, is inappropriate for Southeast Asia.
Deep divisions within Southeast Asia on the Ukraine conflict persist, as reflected in the recently concluded Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. This indicates that ties with Moscow are unlikely to affect intra-Asean relations.
As far as the US is concerned, closer ties with the Kremlin may invite some criticism. The Russian president’s visit was rebuked by the US embassy in Hanoi, which stated that “no country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalise his atrocities”. However, Vietnam’s strategic importance is likely to shield it from serious adverse repercussions of deepening ties with Russia and China.
Rushali Saha is a New-Delhi based independent researcher and analyst working with Horizon Intelligence, a Belgium-based threat intelligence firm
