KUALA LUMPUR, June 25 — Of the 56 seats in Johor’s state assembly, 21 changed hands in 2022 alone, a wave that wiped out Pakatan Harapan’s 2018 breakthrough and handed Barisan Nasional a commanding comeback.
Seats once claimed as symbols of that historic upset, including Gambir and Parit Yaani, reverted to BN, while Perikatan Nasional also carved out new territory of its own.
As Johor returns to the polls on July 11, these same 21 constituencies, which sit on the volatile border between BN’s rural strongholds and PH’s urban bases, are shaping up to be the battlegrounds that decide the next government.
Redrawing the map
BN’s path to victory in 2022 relied on reclaiming the ground lost during the 2018 wave. The coalition successfully clawed back constituencies that had become emblematic of the PH breakthrough.
Gambir, once won by Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin under the PH banner, reverted to BN. Similarly, Parit Yaani returned to the BN column after unseating Johor PH chairman Aminolhuda Hassan.
In the critical Johor Bahru suburban belt, BN reclaimed Larkin and Permas, both of which had been Bersatu prizes four years earlier.
PN also carved out its own territory. Bukit Kepong, Maharani, and Endau moved into the PN column, while Muda’s Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz made history by securing Puteri Wangsa.
The 21 seats that flipped in 2022:
PH to BN
- Pemanis (PKR to Umno)
- Kemelah (Amanah to MIC)
- Tenang (Bersatu to Umno)
- Gambir (Bersatu to Umno)
- Serom (Amanah to Umno)
- Bukit Naning (PKR to Umno)
- Semerah (PKR to Umno)
- Yong Peng (DAP to MCA)
- Parit Yaani (Amanah to Umno)
- Senggarang (Amanah to Umno)
- Permas (Bersatu to Umno)
- Larkin (Bersatu to Umno)
- Kempas (Bersatu to Umno)
- Bukit Permai (Bersatu to Umno)
- Pulai Sebatang (Amanah to Umno)
PH to PN
BN to PN
PH (Bersatu) to PN (Bersatu)
- Bukit Kepong (Retained by Sahruddin Jamal, but shifted from PH to PN following Bersatu’s exit)
The turnout factor
The political shift was inseparable from a collapse in voter participation. Participation didn’t just dip; it cratered from 84.51 per cent in 2018 to 54.92 per cent in 2022.
The timing was a factor: the Omicron variant was still a concern, and many Johoreans working across the Causeway or in other states faced steep logistical hurdles to return home. Deep political fatigue after years of federal instability also kept many away.
The silence was loudest in urban areas. Perling recorded the state’s lowest turnout at 42.2 per cent, nearly half its 2018 level. Skudai and Puteri Wangsa saw similar plunges of over 30 percentage points. While it is impossible to know how those who stayed home would have voted, their absence effectively dismantled the mobilization that powered the 2018 transition.
The road to July 11
The 21 seats that changed hands in 2022 will be the ones to watch next month. These constituencies sit on the volatile border between BN’s rural heartland and PH’s urban bases.
If Johor voters decide to show up in greater numbers this time, these battlegrounds will likely decide the next government.